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全傑科技 DecisionTools Suite 4.5.4 Industrial Edition 英文正式版(決策分析風險軟體)




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Serial: 11857441
Key: 8E5FDA



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全傑科技 DecisionTools Suite 4.5.4 Industrial Edition 英文正式版(決策分析風險軟體)

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http://www.chemoffice.com.tw/html/Product/index.php?soft_id=3399






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內容說明:
There are many risk and decision analysis tools on the market today. But
most of them focus on one specific analytical technique, like simulation or
decision trees. And most of them are tailored to a specific industry need,
such as insurance claims modeling or oil prospecting. Furthermore, these
tools can run tens of thousands, even millions of dollars. What you need is
an integrated set of tools that combine the best analytical methods, can be
applied to different problems, and that is reasonably priced. Look no further
than the DecisionTools? Suite!

DecisionTools That Work Together
The DecisionTools? Suite is an integrated set of products designed to work
together to provide combined analyses and maximum functionality - optimum
decision analysis in one package! The DecisionTools Suite brings together
up to seven products: @RISK, PrecisionTree?/sup>, TopRank?/sup>,
RISKOptimizer?/sup>, BestFit?/sup>, RISKview?, and @RISKAccelerator?/sup>.
Installation is fast and easy, using a single CD-ROM. The programs themselves
have been designed to work together in an integrated environment, running
from a common toolbar in Microsoft Excel.

With the DecisionTools Suite, you can perform advanced analyses you could not
perform with any single product. Create a decision tree in PrecisionTree,
then use @RISK to run a Risk Analysis on it. Take data stored in another
workbook, use BestFit to find the distribution that fits that data, and use
the distribution with @RISK.

"DecisionTools is a really important suite of tools, and I applaud Palisade's
effort to better integrate some of them into the @RISK modeling framework."
Bruce Siegel, Engineering and Business Process Consultant, Los Gatos,
California

The DecisionTools Suite includes the following products:

@RISK (Professional Edition)
The Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for Excel. @RISK adds the power of
Monte Carlo simulation to any spreadsheet model. Replace uncertain values
in your spreadsheet with @RISK functions which represent a range of
possible values. Select one or more bottom-line cells as outputs, and start a
simulation. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or even thousands of
times, each time selecting random values from the @RISK functions you』ve
entered. The result: a distribution of possible outcomes and the
probability of getting those results. This not only tells you what could
happen in a given situation, but how likely it is that it will happen.
Results can be displayed as high-resolution graphs and in a full
statistical report. Advanced features include Sensitivity and Scenario
Analyses, overlay graphs, and multiple summary graphs. The DecisionTools
Suite comes with @RISK 4.5 Professional, which integrates RISKview 4.5 for
distribution viewing, and BestFit 4.5 for distribution fitting (see below).
And @RISK 4.5 runs up to ten times faster than previous versions, and
includes an intuitive Microsoft Office-style interface.

PrecisionTree (Standard or Professional Edition)
The Decision Analysis add-in for Excel. Create influence diagrams and
decision trees right in your existing spreadsheets! Use influence diagrams to
see the relationships between components of a problem, then decision trees to
model the sequence of events. Results include a full statistical report and
risk profile graphs. Sensitivity Analysis tells you which factors in your
decision are most important. Advanced features include linked trees, logic
nodes, and reference nodes. PrecisionTree Pro adds policy suggestion graphs
and strategy region graphs!

TopRank (Standard or Professional Edition)
The What-if Analysis add-in for Excel. Take any spreadsheet and TopRank
automatically determines which cells affect results the most and ranks them
in order of importance. Results can be displayed as Tornado graphs and in a
full statistical report. Advanced features include a What-if Wizard, Multi-
Way What-if Analysis, and support for data tables. TopRank Pro features
unlimited Multi-Way What-if Analysis.

RISKOptimizer (Industrial Edition)
The simulation and optimization solution for Excel. Optimize your @RISK
models to find the best possible solution to your problem! RISKOptimizer
combines genetic algorithm optimization with Monte Carlo simulation to find
the best possible combination of factors to lead to a desired result. For
instance, you could find the optimal combination of projects to maximize your
firm』s profits. Available in the DecisionTools Suite Industrial.

BestFit
The distribution fitting solution for Windows. BestFit takes data (now up
to 100,000 points or pairs with BestFit 4.5) and finds the distribution
function that best fits that data. BestFit accepts three types of data:
sample, density, and cumulative. BestFit tests up to 26 distribution types
using advanced optimization algorithms. Results are displayed graphically and
through a statistical report which includes goodness-of-fit statistics.
BestFit 4.5 offers complete control over fitting parameters, and offers new
graphics and an Office-style interface. BestFit distributions can be used
directly in @RISK, TopRank, or PrecisionTree models. The DecisionTools
Suite includes BestFit fully integrated with @RISK 4.5, and also as a stand-
alone application.

RISKview
The distribution viewing companion program. It is a powerful tool for
viewing, assessing, and creating probability distributions. Draw distribution
functions with the Distribution Artist and place them in @RISK models as
General distributions. RISKview also calculates the distribution that best
fits your hand-drawn curve from 37 distribution types! Now RISKview 4.5
offers sharper graphics than ever before, sliding delimiters on graphs, and
overlay graphs. The DecisionTools Suite includes RISKview integrated with
@RISK 4.5, and also as a stand-alone application.

@RISKAccelerator
The parallel-processing solution for faster simulations. Speed up large
simulations by using all CPUs in a multi-CPU machine. If your PC has two
processors, your simulations will run nearly twice as fast! With integrated
@RISKAccelerator, @RISK Industrial lets you take full advantage of the
additional processing speed available with increasingly popular multi-
processor machines.

Standard, Professional, and Industrial Suite Versions Available
The DecisionTools Suite comes in three versions – Standard, Professional and
Industrial. All versions include @RISK 4.5 Professional, BestFit 4.5, and
RISKview 4.5. The Standard version adds the standard versions of TopRank
and PrecisionTree, while the Professional and Industrial versions include the
professional versions of these programs. DecisionTools Industrial adds
RISKOptimizer Industrial as well as built-in @RISKAccelerator to utilize
all available CPUs in a single machine during simulation.

DecisionTools Suite Features
Easy installation from one CD
Common Excel toolbar to access all programs
Designed to work together to provide integrated risk and decision analysis
@RISK - Risk Analysis
PrecisionTree - Decision Analysis
TopRank - What-if Analysis
RISKOptimizer - Optimization with Simulation
BestFit - Distribution Fitting
RISKview - Distribution Previewing
@RISKAccelerator - parallel processing to speed up simulations
Standard, Professional, and Industrial Versions Available
Great value -save up to $1,580!

DecisionTools Suite Example:
The Restaurant Franchise Problem
Consider the venture of opening a new fast food franchise in your city. Do
you build a restaurant with a drive-thru window, a playground, both, or
neither? To begin, you need to determine the costs involved to see if you can
afford the project. You also need to determine the best size of restaurant to
build in order to maximize profits in the long run. Start by building a
spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel. You model could calculate how much it will
cost to build a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground.
Building materials and other costs are also accounted for.

Step 1: TopRank for What-If Analysis
First, run TopRank on your model to determine the critical inputs. There
are over 30 variables in your model, but after running TopRank you see that
only five have a major impact on the cost of the project: cement cost (Q1),
equipment, cement cost (Q2), furniture, and labor. You decide to
concentrate on these variables for your Risk Analysis. By using TopRank,
you reduced the amount of distributions you need to define for your risk
analysis by over 80%!

Step 2: BestFit for Data Fitting
To run a Risk Analysis with @RISK, you need to replace those five variables
identified by TopRank with @RISK probability distribution functions. With
historical data for these values available from previous restaurant
construction projects, you feed these data sets into BestFit to get
distribution functions for each data set. BestFit』s confidence levels and
critical values guarantee that you have accurately fitted distributions for
your @RISK model.

Step 3: RISKview for Distribution Previewing
Now, replace the five values in your model with the functions BestFit
returned. However, you have recently gotten information from your furniture
outlet that prices have been dropping lately, and now you need to reflect
this information in the distribution that you are using for furniture
price. RISKview allows you to take a look at the distribution you are using
and try different parameters or functions to find a distribution that more
accurately fits the situation.

Step 4: @RISK for Risk Analysis
You are now ready to run a simulation with @RISK! @RISK results show that
there is an 88% chance the project will stay within your budget, and an 11%
chance it will actually cost less than your "best-case scenario". In terms of
cost, you are ready to go ahead with the project.

Step 5: PrecisionTree Runs a Decision Analysis
Having determined that you can build a fast food restaurant within your
budget, you need to decide whether to build a drive-thru window and/or a
playground. You build a decision tree in PrecisionTree modeling the costs for
obtaining a building permit for the various types of restaurants, as well
as estimates for profit potential after five years. Your results indicate
that building a medium-sized restaurant with a drive-thru window and a
playground is your optimal decision.

Step 6: @RISK & PrecisionTree for Advanced Analysis
What about uncertain factors in your decision tree? Run a Risk Analysis on
your decision tree using @RISK. You replace your profit and cost estimates
with @RISK functions. Next, simulate your decision tree with @RISK. The
results confirm that building a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a
playground will maximize profits, with a 12% probability of making more money
than you possibly thought you could!

Step 7: RISKOptimizer for the Best Solution
Now let』s take another look at the original @RISK model. You have defined
five 「uncontrollable」 cost variables using probability distribution
functions, but there are many 「controllable」 factors in your model that
could affect the project』s total cost. For example, you must decide how many
people to hire, how much furniture to buy, how much cement to use. Your @RISK
analysis only accounted for scenarios at a single state of those controllable
variables. Use RISKOptimizer to determine the optimal allocation of resources
for personnel, furniture, and cement subject to constraints such as total
budget and cement safety minimums. By having RISKOptimizer try many different
combinations – and simulate each one – you find that you can build the
restaurant cheaper than you originally thought!

Become a Decision Analysis Expert!
The DecisionTools Suite comes with a wide variety of resources to help you
get started and overcome problems. Comprehensive multimedia tutorials walk
you through the features of @RISK, RISKOptimizer, PrecisionTree and TopRank
and demonstrate how to set up and run models, step-by-step. The users
manual for each application is written in straightforward, plain English
and even provides background information on Risk Analysis, Decision
Analysis and other techniques. All manuals are also available
electronically in the on-line Help menus. @RISK 4.5 features a comprehensive,
context-sensitive Help file to zero in your question. You can search on a
particular topic, or simply ask a plain English question using the 「How Do
I...」 feature! Finally, example files are provided for all programs that can
be used as templates for building your own model.

If you would like further resources, Palisade carries a number of books on
how to get the most from the DecisionTools Suite (see below). We also offer
Software Training Seminars and customized on-site training classes on the
DecisionTools Suite worldwide. These classes provide hands-on training on how
to use the software, and teach valuable model-building techniques. Visit
the seminar pages for more details and the latest seminar schedule! Call
for details!

Get The Best Answers With The DecisionTools Suite!
Each product in the DecisionTools Suite can provide answers to a particular
aspect of a decision problem. However, for the most comprehensive analyses,
use them together to provide a more accurate and detailed analysis than